I always try to have a pulse on the Stars’ fan base through a variety of mediums. Recently, I felt an uptick in some topics and decided they should be addressed. So, call this an informal mailbag or an FAQ post. Let’s dive into how Mason Marchment, Roope Hintz and Nils Lundkvist are doing, Thomas Harley’s wait for the power play, how Ryan Suter feels about his game and what the coaches like about Jani Hakanpää.
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What’s the update on Marchment?
It’s been a big week of progress for Marchment as he works his way back from a knee injury that occurred more than three weeks ago, on March 13, in Seattle on a knee-to-knee collision. Marchment skated Tuesday before practice and skated Wednesday with a handful of Stars players on the team’s day off.
“I’m hopeful and anticipate he’ll be in a game before the end of the regular season,” Stars coach Pete DeBoer said. “We want at least one game from him. Got my fingers crossed. Maybe we can get more, but for sure I’d like at least one.”
Friday, Marchment had his first full practice with the team. He looked to be in good spirits on the ice, was fully engaged and took line rushes before a small scrimmage in which he was on the left wing with Max Domi and Ty Dellandrea.
Roope Hintz is not on the ice for practice. Mason Marchment is. pic.twitter.com/I2kRVaXm95
— Saad Yousuf (@SaadYousuf126) April 7, 2023
DeBoer ruled him out for Saturday’s game against the Golden Knights, leaving Monday’s tilt in Detroit and the back-to-back against the Blues on Wednesday (in St. Louis) and Thursday (at home) to end the season as the remaining regular-season games for Marchment to get into.
What’s up with Hintz?
In Monday’s 5-1 win over the Predators, Hintz played 13:23, the lowest time on ice on the team aside from Fredrik Olofsson’s 12:39. After the game, DeBoer shrugged it off.
“Just maintenance,” DeBoer said. “We got that lead and don’t need to overplay him in that situation.”
The next day, Hintz was with the team for practice at the American Airlines Center on team picture day. However, it was a light, low-intensity practice. Hintz missed Thursday’s game against the Flyers and was officially ruled out with a lower-body injury. He is day to day and was the lone player missing from practice Friday.
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“I would say definitely getting better but not good enough to skate,” DeBoer said after Friday’s practice. “We’ll see how he wakes up tomorrow. Fingers crossed. I would call him a game-time decision.”
Hintz’s durability is an interesting topic. In his first full NHL season, Hintz played 60 of 69 games before the COVID-19 pause. He then missed 15 of 56 games in the 2020-21 season; it was almost impressive he didn’t miss more given he was a perpetual game-time decision for most of the season as he worked through a serious groin and hip injury. Last season, he played in 80 of 82 games in the regular season. This season, Hintz missed one game in November with a lower-body injury, then seven games in January with an upper-body injury.
On the flip side, the Stars have found themselves without Hintz in some key postseason moments. He missed games in the Stanley Cup Final in 2020 and also missed Game 7 in Calgary last year. Even in 2019, he played through Game 7 in St. Louis with a broken foot. The Stars have a little over a week to manage Hintz’s health. The upcoming games are important for playoff seeding, but Hintz’s availability, at the best version he can be, is the most important thing in the playoffs.
How do the Stars navigate Hintz’s absence?
By all accounts, Hintz’s injury is not serious and he should not be out for an extended time. On the other hand, this is NHL coaches talking about injuries, and we all saw how that played out in recent weeks with Scott Wedgewood’s timeline. The good news for the Stars is they have a formidable backup plan.
Tyler Seguin has been sliding up to center Jason Robertson and Joe Pavelski. With the disclaimer that it’s a small sample and analytics vary by model, it’s worth noting that, according to MoneyPuck, the Stars’ elite top line of Robertson, Hintz and Pavelski, in 717 minutes, is second on the team in expected goals among the eight lines that have played at least 120 minutes. They have an expected goals percentage of 59.6 percent. The best line in that category is Robertson, Seguin and Pavelski at 62.5 percent in 127 minutes.
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Of course, Hintz is vital to the operation and is one of the best two-way forwards in the league. Additionally, Seguin playing up the lineup weakens the depth scoring. The goal is to have Seguin playing with Marchment and Domi when the playoffs begin. But in terms of Band-Aid solutions, the Stars are in good shape. And it could be worse. Just ask Colorado, who has ruled out Cale Makar indefinitely, and Minnesota, who has ruled out Joel Eriksson Ek and labeled him as week to week.
Will Lundkvist get another chance this season?
The Stars maintain that Lundkvist is a significant part of their future, but it doesn’t seem like he’ll be a big part of this year’s team, barring injuries. That Lundkvist didn’t crack the lineup last week on the road in Arizona and Colorado was telling. He could get one more opportunity down the stretch if the Stars try to rest some of their heavy lifters against bad teams. But at this point, it’s more a question of whether Lundkvist is even the next man in or if that is Joel Hanley and Lundkvist is sitting eighth on the depth chart.
When will Harley get on the power play?
Harley is an offensive defenseman. That’s what all the buzz was about him when he was drafted. He has already shown why that was the case with some great offensive instincts early in his NHL tenure.
The Stars want him to develop as a complete player who can be depended upon anytime in the game, and that might mean some patience for Harley’s special teams contributions. They want to be careful about rewarding an offensively leaning player with the power play before he establishes himself at five-on-five so he doesn’t fall into the trap of just thinking about one end of the ice — and so there isn’t so much on his plate that it overwhelms him entirely.
“He’s going to play five-on-five tonight, and that’ll be his first game this year in the NHL,” DeBoer said Monday. “He’s got NHL experience, so he’s not going to be overwhelmed, but it’s his first game this year. So, we’ll ease him in tonight and then we’ll start talking about that stuff.”
With Hintz out, the Stars moved Seguin up to the top power-play unit with Robertson, Pavelski, Jamie Benn and Miro Heiskanen. That left the second unit with Suter, Domi, Evgenii Dadonov and Wyatt Johnston. The fifth slot went to Colin Miller, but Marchment would also be an option there when healthy. Harley’s insertion on the power play seems more like a matter of when not if.
“We’ll see. I’m not going to put a ceiling on this guy,” DeBoer said. “He could play higher up in the lineup; he could play on special teams. He has the capability to do all of those things. We’ll just see how quickly.”
Stars were supposed to beat the Flyers.
But Thomas Harley wasn't supposed to be this good, this quick. Breaking down his superb game, offensively and defensively (with video).
Pete DeBoer: “It looks like a seamless transition. He makes our group better.”https://t.co/08CFt8aKru
— Saad Yousuf (@SaadYousuf126) April 7, 2023
How does Suter feel about his play?
Despite what some choose to think, Stars coaches and management have been asked about Suter’s play plenty this season. In a nutshell, they still like what he brings to the table and feel he can be trusted on the ice because the mental parts of his game outweigh the physical deterioration.
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When I asked Suter how he has felt the past couple of years after being a top-level defenseman for a while, he interjected.
“I still feel like I am,” Suter said. “Obviously, not at that (pointing to Heiskanen) level. I think a lot of it comes with opportunity, right? When you’re playing on the top power play, get those points here and there, it makes you feel good. But I still know that I can play. I still feel like I’m a top-four defenseman in the league.
“It’s been different this year just because playing with so many different guys, it’s hard. But it’s been good. I enjoy playing with (Joe Hanley) and (Lundkvist). That’s the good thing about our group, that anyone can play with anyone.”
Suter also reinforced the notion that coaches and management hold that his hockey IQ is an asset.
“I might not be as quick as I was, but I feel good and feel strong,” Suter said. “As you get older, you get a little more wise, right? You can think a little more. I think things are good.”
What is the appeal of Hakanpää?
Another defenseman who has struggled to varying degrees recently is Hakanpää. I recently asked DeBoer how he’s able to balance the miscues and penalties with the positives he brings.
“It’s a pretty easy balance,” DeBoer said. “The one thing with (Hakanpää) is that it’s never a lack of effort, lack of preparation, lack of leadership. This guy is as good a team player as I’ve been around. When you know a guy is all-in in all of those departments, it’s a lot easier to look past a mistake here or there, especially when the mistakes are being aggressive and making aggressive reads. That’s how we want to play, and that’s how we want him to play.
“That’s probably the same for a lot of our players. If you’re going to make a mistake, make it being aggressive and we’ll talk about it after. We don’t want people in between.”
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Hakanpää has been part of the Stars’ most consistent pairing in terms of time on ice. He and Esa Lindell have been together since early in the season and are on track to be the only pairing to play over 1,000 minutes together. Analytically, they grade out toward the bottom of the team offensively and middle of the pack defensively. So, what does DeBoer see in them?
“Obviously, if you look at the analytics and things like that, there are always cases like that,” DeBoer said. “I can tell you this: When you’re a forward on the other team and you see those two big guys out there, you’re not too excited about playing against them. That, for me, goes to the top of any analytics report that someone might be looking at. Those are two guys that are big and nasty and hard to play against and physical. I don’t know where that shows up on an analytics report, but it’s at the top of my list.”
DeBoer also said the pairing’s contributions to the penalty kill, which is No. 3 in the NHL, are “huge.”
“Those guys are the anchors of what’s been a top-three PK all year,” DeBoer said. “They’re the first ones over the boards. They usually kill three-quarters of it. Huge piece of that.”
(Photo of Roope Hintz: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
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