Sleeper fantasy football expert mock draft: Waiting on QB, Christian McCaffrey goes 1.01 and more

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In the latest of my mock draft series for the 2023 fantasy football season, we took Sleeper Fantasy Football for a spin and did a 1QB .5 PPR Mock. I’ll dissect the draft into three segments: Early (1-4), Middle (5-9), and Late Rounds (10-14), analyzing the draft and discussing my evolving strategy based on the draft board.

The Participants

The roster settings:

1 QB
2 RB
3 WR
1 TE
1 Flex
5 Bench

The Draft

Here’s a link to the entire draft board

Early Rounds

Analysis: Justin Jefferson has been the consensus 1.01 in non-SuperFlex leagues most of the offseason, but it’s Christian McCaffrey off the board first. While you can’t go wrong with Run CMC, I would have taken Jefferson since you have to start three wide receivers. Having an edge like JJetta when there will be a minimum of 36 starting wide receivers each week is enormous.

While I understand the benefit of getting a stud quarterback, Patrick Mahomes in the mid-second is too early for me. I would have preferred that Shane took one of the five wide receivers who went off the board. Through four rounds, I would have to give Jeremy the gold star of my favorite start to the draft. Elite wide receivers and a top three tight end in Mark Andrews — he’s set up to draft a championship team. Two teams that I’m interested to see how they shake out are Alfredo’s, who went four straight wide receivers, and the Bot’s, who went four straight running backs.

My Strategy: I knew I wanted to go with an elite wide receiver in the first round with the roster settings, and I was able to snag AJ Brown. I debated hard between him and Amon-Ra St Brown; it’s a toss-up between them.

While I’m ok with my Pollard pick in the second round, I wish I had taken one of the wide receivers who got taken before it made it back to me in the third. There were six wide receivers I would have been ecstatic to have as my WR2. I thought one of them (Jaylen Waddle, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, DeVonta Smith, DK Metcalf, Tee Higgins) would make it back to me. Sometimes the gamble pays off — this time, it didn’t. Amari Cooper isn’t a bad consolation prize, though.

The Dalvin Cook speculation has knocked Breece Hall’s ADP down quite a bit. While there is a risk coming off the injury, getting him in the fourth round should be illegal (and actually is in New Hampshire)

I rarely draft a quarterback early in 1QB leagues. I just can’t spend the draft capital it takes to get Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, or Josh Allen when I can wait until the later rounds and still get guys from the second or third tier of quarterbacks. I like to wait and take one high-upside quarterback and one high-floor quarterback to pair them with.

Let’s see if it works out like I hoped for this draft…

Middle Rounds

Analysis: After Alfredo went with a four-straight wide receiver start, he took Christian Watson in the fifth. I would have rather seen him draft one of Cam Akers, Dameon Pierce, or Alvin Kamara; all have RB1 potential.

KC drafted two of my favorite breakout candidates this season: Brandon Aiyuk and Jahan Dotson. Starting with CMC, then hitting the other positions hard, is textbook “Hero RB” drafting. He got two undervalued backs in David Montgomery and Jamaal Williams. They will be more than sufficient as his RB2 with the edge he has at other positions.

After starting with two wide receivers, Jake got great value in Rounds 4-6, taking the discount on Joe Mixon, JK Dobbins, and Javonte Williams. All three have Top-10 RB upside.

My Strategy: I wanted an RB3 who is expected to get a lot of touches early in the season with the uncertainty of Breece Hall being ready for Week 1. I’m back in on Cam Akers. I am ready to get hurt again. George Kittle wasn’t a target of mine, and I have very few shares of him this season, but I couldn’t pass up the value in the 6th. Since my running back corps was in good shape, I went back-to-back-to-back wide receivers with Christian Kirk, Treylon Burks, and Gabe Davis. All are going later than they should for various reasons. I’ve never been a Gabe Davis guy, but he’s worth the gamble in the 8th round. Much better value than the inflated ADP he saw last year.

Late Rounds

Analysis: Kraig played the quarterback waiting game like I did and wound up with two Top 10 finishers from last season. He’s loaded at wide receiver, has a terrific running back corps, and a solid tight end in Pat Freiermuth. Kraig killed this draft—gold star for him. Almost half the teams didn’t draft a second quarterback, and if I drafted one of the top eight or so, I wouldn’t have either. You won’t be playing matchups with those guys; there’s no need to waste a roster spot on a backup. You’ll be able to find a solid streamer for whatever bye week you have on waivers.

My Strategy: A finish like this is why I refuse to pay up for quarterbacks in a 1QB league. I got Anthony Richardson as my high upside play and paired him with Kirk Cousins, who has finished as a QB1 in the past three years. Late rounds are for lottery tickets, so I took a few with Jamo and Jayden Reed. I hoped to land Devon Achane before Herms crushed my hopes and dreams, but I’m ok with the Damien Harris pick. He’ll be more involved in the Bills’ backfield than most anticipate. There’s a non-zero chance he will score double-digit touchdowns this season.

Here’s how my team shook out:

QB – Anthony Richardson, Kirk Cousins
RB – Tony Pollard, Breece Hall, Cam Akers, Damien Harris
WR – AJ Brown, Amari Cooper, Christian Kirk, Treylon Burks, Gabe Davis, Jameson Williams, Jayden Reed
TE – George Kittle

My team is good but not great. I regret the Pollard pick, I felt like I was chasing wide receiver the rest of the draft. I like the middle round running backs much more than the middle round wide receivers.

Full Draft Board

Participant Roundtable

I asked the participants a variety of questions in regards to the mock and their draft strategy in general. For the Sleeper bot answers, I fed the entire draft into Google Bard and told it which team to answer for.

If you could give your draft a song title, what would it be and why?

Ciely – “Survival of the Fittest” – Mobb Deep.

“You walkin’ with your head down, scared to look” … “Survival of the fit, only the strong survive.” I know the message of the track is much more serious, but when I drafted four straight injury risks (Rounds 5-8), survival of the fittest is the first thing that came to mind.

A. Brown – “Sitting, Waiting, Wishing” by Jack Johnson.

I didn’t intend to wait so long on RB, but the board just kept falling to me in a way that WR gave me the best value in each round. Eventually I got a handful of RBs that I’m comfortable enough with to start a season.

L. Brown – “This Train Don’t Stop Here Anymore” – Elton John.

The song tells a story and the lyrics are some that most people can relate to. One example is “I used to be the main express, All steam and whistles, heading west, Picking up my pain from door to door, Riding on the storyline, furnace burning overtime But this train don’t stop.”

Barrett – “Fight For Your Right” – Beastie Boys.

“You gotta fight for your right to paaaaaarty.” Travis Kelce. Nuff said.

Joyner – “I’ll Wait” by Van Halen.

Getting CMC with the first pick is a good idea, but this league went on such a WR run in the first and second round (13 of the next 22 picks were wideouts) that it was clear that this team could go for Jalen Hurts on the turn in Round 3 and wait for wide receivers in Rounds 4-5.

Reuth – “I Would Do Anything For Love (But I Won’t Do That)” – Meatloaf.

I debated taking Jordan Love as my second upside QB late but couldn’t pass on Jared Goff who has proven it and I feel is pretty well set to finish better overall and more consistently.

Harris – “I’m Broken” – Pantera.

I’m so in on Jahmyr Gibbs getting sniped by Laquon Jones was a soul-crushing moment that reverberated throughout what otherwise would have been a pretty solid draft.

Popielarz – “Better Days” – Goo Goo Dolls.

The majority of the team is full of players who have yet to hit there ceilings, or breakout. In addition the majority of the veterans are in new places with arguably better situations that the year prior.

Sleeper Bot – “Machine in the Making” – Imagine Dragons.

This song is about someone who is still growing and learning, but has the potential to be great. It reminds me of Justin Fields, who is a young quarterback with a lot of potential. He is still learning the game, but he has the physical tools and the mental toughness to be a star.

What’s your typical strategy for drafting quarterbacks in a 1QB league? Did you stick with it in this draft?

Ciely – Either get a Top 3 quarterback in Rounds 3-4, one of the next three in Rounds 5-7 or wait until the end game. So, yes, grabbing Josh Allen early in the third was one of my possible outcomes. That said, with how my team turned out, I don’t love it or hate it. I’d likely prefer waiting until late Round 3/early Round 4 from now on, which also means I might never get a top three quarterback.

Harris – I usually wait until the tail end of the single-digit rounds and I went a bit earlier here (Deshaun Watson at 7.12). I might have been better served to stick with my strategy. I could have landed a perfectly suitable QB in Round 9 or 10.

A.Brown – This year, I really love grabbing one of the Justin’s (Fields or Herbert) in the fifth round. In the 5th I opted for Christian Watson as my WR5/FLX. Instead, I was able to draft Tua Tagovailoa, a QB with Top-5 potential that I could stack with one of my top receivers, in the ninth round.

Joyner – Get one of the elite trio if the price is right, which is usually in Rounds 2-3. Hurts was there in Round 3 and thus was selected, but if Mahomes, Allen, or Hurts would not have been available in Round 3, it would have been pick Burrow, Fields, Herbert, or Jackson in Rounds 5-6. After that it would be wait as possible and get someone like Kirk Cousins (who my quarterback draft guide notes ranks sixth in QB fantasy points over the past three years) in the next to the last round.

L. Brown – I try to create a stack, preferably of WRs in the first couple of rounds. In this draft, I had to shift the strategy a bit because most of the WRs I targeted were getting taken off the board ahead of me.

Reuth – I generally wait on QB in 1 QB leagues and try to get two with clear top 10 value late. I feel like I accomplished that here.

What’s your approach to drafting RB committees/ambiguous backfields? Did you target any in this draft?

Joyner – The ambiguity must be offset by some type of upside. This year that makes a strong case for the Bears running backs, as they have low ADPs (between 35-53) and yet could easily top those marks given that Chicago has by far the most favorable rush defense schedule in 2023.

Ciely – I have no problem targeting running backs in those positions, but I’ll aim for the better value, which is often the lower ADP. As much as we can do to predict usage, we won’t ever be 100% accurate, so giving yourself the highest potential return is the best strategy. Look at Tony Pollard versus Ezekiel Elliott last year.

A.Brown – I usually like to grab at least one of the top RBs; in this case I didn’t. I would have gladly taken Tony Pollard had he fallen two more spots to me at the 2.08. Ambiguous backfields almost become a necessity to target once you get to round seven and beyond. My seventh and eighth round picks, D’Andre Swift and Brian Robinson, have obvious discounts because of their team situations, but both players have potential to finish in the Top 24.

Popielarz – With the rise of the RBBC approach in the NFL it is hard to avoid ambiguous backfields. If I target a backfield like this I lean toward the cheaper option. In this draft I avoided most of these situations but did target the cheaper option in Houston, drafting Devin Singletary in the 11th in anticipation that he sees a decent amount of work in what should be a run heavy attack. Most of my running backs where high-end handcuffs for the more aggressive run offenses in the league.

Barrett – I just love running backs, but when it comes to ambiguous situations I think it depends on the situation. Miami is not a backfield I’ve been drafting but Washington is. I have to trust or see a guy a path to volume that I think is real. Idk if you count Zach Charbonnet but I did take him.

Herms – I also definitely tapped into a pair of ambiguous backfield (Dolphins and Eagles) and the approach for me is either pick the most dynamic runner of the bunch (Rashaad Penny), or if enough of the members of the RBBC have late enough ADP, scoop both.

What’s your favorite “guilty pleasure” song?

Felicio – “Party in the USA” – Miley Cirus. It’s a banger. Always has been, always will be.

A. Brown – “Everybody” – Backstreet Boys

L. Brown – “End Game” – Taylor Swift

Ciely – “Does It Offend You, Yeah?” – We Are Rockstars. I still use it in my workout mix.

Herms – “Levitating” – Dua Lipa

Rueth – “You’re So Vain” – Carly Simon

Barrett – “Sorry, Not Sorry” – Demi Lovato

Harris – Pretty much anything by Marty Robbins.

Sleeper Bot – “Mr. Roboto” – Styx

Popielarz – “Lose Yourself” – Eminem

Jones – “Cover Girl” – New Kids On The Block

Joyner – “Asayake” – Casiopea. A 1979 tune by the Japanese jazz fusion band Casiopea that was even better on their 1982 live album Mint Jams.

(Top photo: Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)

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